Tata Power is India's largest integrated private-sector power utility, spanning transmission & distribution (₹41,339cr of FY26 segment revenue), renewables (₹15,028cr) and thermal & hydro generation (₹11,636cr) across more than 14.7 GW of installed capacity. Grid storage appears in this report because Tata Power has been an active, credible bidder for pumped-hydro and standalone BESS tenders — a 324 MW/ 2,592 MWh pumped-storage award from SECI (July 2026) plus standalone and hybrid BESS wins in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Kerala and Maharashtra — but storage is not a separately disclosed segment, and the awards identified in this research sum to roughly 3.2 GWh against a >14.7 GW generation base. This is a company where storage is a growing, credible optionality, not yet a reason to own the stock on its own.
Two facts matter far more to Tata Power's near-term investment case than any of its storage tenders. First, the Mundra ultra-mega power project was shut down for roughly nine months (July 2025-March 2026) in a dispute with Gujarat's GUVNL over imported-coal cost pass-through, an estimated ₹800-1,000 crore drag that has now resolved with new PPAs and an April 2026 restart. Second, and larger: Tata Power lost a $490.32 million international arbitration award to Kleros Capital Partners over a 2013 Russian coal-mining dispute, and the Singapore International Commercial Court rejected the company's challenge to that award on 26 August 2026. Tata Power has said it will appeal further, but as of this report a roughly half-a- billion-dollar liability, with interest accruing since November 2020, remains live and unresolved.
We flag a genuine data-quality problem in Tata Power's own reported financials: FY25 PAT is cited as ₹4,775 crore (Screener.in), ₹5,197 crore (the company's own Q4FY25 release) and ₹6,320 crore (a third aggregator's YoY comparator for FY26) across sources that do not reconcile in this research. We use the more conservative, Screener.in-sourced figure for our valuation below rather than pick the most flattering number, and flag this explicitly rather than resolve it silently.
Net: HOLD. Mundra's normalisation is a genuine, underappreciated positive; storage optionality is real but immaterial today; and the unresolved Kleros arbitration, alongside unreconciled earnings data, keeps this just short of a BUY on our own conservative numbers.
Tata Power is a full mainboard-listed company under complete SEBI LODR obligations, majority-owned (46.86%) by Tata Sons under the chairmanship of N. Chandrasekaran, who also chairs Tata Sons itself — a related-party-adjacent structure common across the Tata group and disclosed as such, not evidence of irregularity on its own.
The company resolved the Mundra PPA dispute through negotiated new agreements with GUVNL rather than prolonged unilateral action, restarting the plant within roughly nine months. Continued NCD issuance (₹1,500cr at 7.50%, July 2026) and rating reaffirmations (CRISIL AA+/Stable; ICRA, August 2026) show sustained market and rating-agency confidence despite the Kleros litigation being public knowledge throughout this period. The company has been public about the Kleros arbitration outcome and its intent to appeal, rather than staying silent on a material litigation development.
The FY25/FY26 PAT reconciliation gap described above is significant enough that it should be treated as a genuine disclosure-clarity issue, not merely a data-aggregator artefact — a company of this scale publishing figures that differ by nearly ₹1,500 crore across its own release and third-party trackers for the same fiscal year warrants direct verification against the primary annual report before any external party relies on a specific number. The chairman's dual role at Tata Sons and Tata Power is a standard group-structure feature, not a red flag, but it is the kind of related-party-adjacent governance detail this report's methodology requires naming rather than assuming away.
None found specific to governance or financial-reporting integrity. The Kleros arbitration loss and the Mundra shutdown are both disclosed, commercial/legal matters with clear public paper trails, not governance failures in the SEBI LODR sense. We flag explicitly that the unreconciled PAT figures, while troubling for analytical precision, were not found to stem from any restatement, auditor qualification or regulatory action in this research — absence of evidence of a reporting failure is not the same as confirmation that none exists, and readers should treat the FY25/26 PAT figures as needing direct verification before use in any precise valuation.
The outcome of Tata Power's further appeal to the Singapore Court of Appeal on the Kleros award; any primary-source reconciliation of the FY25/FY26 PAT figures via the next annual report; and whether Tata Power's storage/pumped-hydro order book grows large enough that the company begins disclosing it as a distinct segment.
Adequate, with two live items that belong in the discount rate. Nothing found here points to misconduct, but an unresolved ~$490 million litigation exposure and a genuine gap in the company's own reported profit figures are both real enough that we have applied a conservative earnings base and a below-current target multiple in the valuation below, rather than assuming either resolves favourably.
Given the unreconciled PAT figures described above, we deliberately use the most conservative disclosed base: Screener.in's FY25 PAT of ₹4,775cr on an implied share count of ~324.5cr (market cap ÷ CMP), giving FY26 EPS of ~₹14.72 (assuming a broadly similar PAT trajectory to that conservative base). We then apply a 15% indicative FY27E growth rate, reflecting Mundra's normalisation and continued T&D/renewables growth, against a target multiple held roughly in line with the current implied multiple rather than re-rated upward, given the unresolved Kleros overhang:
| Scenario | Target P/E (FY27E) | FY27E EPS (~) | Target price | Upside/(downside) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 20.0x | 15.5 | 310 | (13.0)% |
| Base | 24.0x | 16.9 | 406 | +14.0% |
| Bull | 28.0x | 18.4 | 515 | +44.5% |
Base case rounded to ₹406. This deliberately conservative-PAT-base approach means our target sits below several third-party brokerage figures found in this research (Kotak "Add" at ₹420 vs. a separate Kotak "Neutral" at ₹310 — itself an unreconciled pair; HSBC Buy at ₹440; JM Financial Buy at ₹429) — we have not adopted any of these directly given the underlying data-quality issues, and note our own base case sits just under the 15% BUY threshold specifically because of the unresolved Kleros litigation, not because of the operating business.
Upgrade triggers: a favourable or settled resolution of the Kleros arbitration; primary-source reconciliation of FY25/FY26 PAT confirming the higher end of the disclosed range; two consecutive quarters of clean post-Mundra-restart earnings growth. Downgrade triggers: an adverse final outcome or enforcement action on the Kleros award; a further, unrelated DISCOM cost-pass-through dispute disrupting another major generation asset; or confirmation that the lower end of the disclosed PAT range is the accurate one.
| FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 55,109 | 61,542 | 64,502 | 62,429 |
| EBITDA | — | 12,701 | 14,468 | 11,041 |
| Net profit (PAT) | 3,810 | 4,280 | 4,775* | 6,636** |
| *FY25 PAT shown per Screener.in (₹4,775cr), the conservative figure used in this report's valuation; Tata Power's own Q4FY25 release separately states ₹5,197cr for the same year. **FY26 PAT of ₹6,636cr is per PSU Connect's coverage of the company's own FY26 results release, which in turn cites FY25 PAT as ₹6,320cr for its YoY comparison — a third, higher figure for FY25 that does not match either figure above. All three FY25 figures are shown per this report's data-honesty standard rather than silently reconciled; see Notes. | ||||
| Selected ratios | FY26 |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.2% |
| ROCE | 10.5% |
| Debt/equity | ~1.4-1.5x |
| Dividend yield | 0.70% |
Balance sheet and cash-flow statements are not reproduced here at full granularity. Source: Screener.in (29 Sep 2026), Tata Power investor releases and PSU Connect coverage of FY26 results (12 May 2026) — see the PAT footnote above and the Notes section for the specific figures that could not be reconciled.
Dart Consultants is a market intelligence and technology service provider, not a SEBI-registered Investment Adviser or Research Analyst. This report is educational material only — not investment advice, and not a recommendation to buy or sell any stock. The HOLD rating above is an educational device for summarising public information, not a regulated recommendation. The analyst(s) hold no position in, and have no banking, advisory or brokerage relationship with, Tata Power Company Ltd, and have received no compensation from the company.
| 12-month target | ₹406 |
| CMP (29 Sep 2026) | ₹356.35 |
| Implied upside | +14.0% |
| Rating | HOLD |
| Market cap | ~₹1.15 lakh cr |
| P/E (TTM) | ~24x (see Notes on data conflict) |
| 52-week range | ₹342.50 – ₹464.90 |
| Debt/equity | ~1.4-1.5x |
| Credit rating | CRISIL AA+/Stable |
| Storage in generation mix | ~3.2 GWh identified / >14.7 GW total |
| Promoter (Tata Sons) | 46.86% |
| DII | 18.1% |
| FII | 10.03% |
| Public | 24.7% |
| FY24 | FY25* | FY26 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 61,542 | 64,502 | 62,429 |
| EBITDA | 12,701 | 14,468 | 11,041 |
| PAT | 4,280 | 4,775* | 6,636** |
